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PATH TO WINTER: OCTOBER 1ST-10TH WEATHER PATTERN ANALYSIS

On this segment of PATH TO WINTER we are going to keep a look at the weather patterns that are happening over the month of October that may give us some key insight into what will occur this upcoming winter season. As we mentioned in our 2015-2016 preliminary winter outlook video October and November will really be the months that we will have too look at to see what the general weather pattern will be as it pertains to this upcoming winter season.

First off, I want to mention the polar Jet stream which right now has me feeling my outlook for the mid-west and the west will be correct with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing for the most part. Why? Look at the graphic and short video bellow.

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As you can see, the weather pattern so far has had the polar jet, or for that matter the coldest air, for the most part staying up in Canada, Consider as well when there have been impulses of cooler than normal air they have come up and over the northeast. Now it is true that currently it is still early but this pattern has been in place now for about a month. We will have to see if this persists because if it does it will be really hard for snow to fall along and east of the I-95 corridor as the angle of the trough would have a storm being either pushed out to sea or coming up the Appalachian mountains which would offer some support to the winter outlook we have released which calls for the “Winter Battle Zone” to be North and west of the big cities.

The Early October Storm may have given us a glimpse of what we might see some of this winter, with nor-Easters.

The Early October Storm may have given us a glimpse of what we might see some of this winter, with nor-Easters.

Another observation though which will cause some hearts of snow lovers to swell is what happened with the storm early this month of October. (yeah we are talking about the Nor-Easter) Showing the possibility  is there for when big storms do form along the coast they will be slow moving and pack a punch. Also that there may be times this winter where cold air may be available with this type of setup. We will have to wait and see. This is where you can see some shades of that 2009-2010 winter come to the forefront.

state of the ensoThe final factor that we will consider is the state or the pattern of the Enso over the past moth or so. Looking at the graphic on your left you will notice one strong signal. The PNA has been sharply positive since the beginning of October. We will have to see if this is a trend. But it fits because there for the majority of this month so far has been a ridge in the west and a trough in the northeast. If you will. The NAO and the AO has been fairly neutral over the past several weeks we have to see if this will continue or will this trend differently over the next several weeks because the state of all three of these factors is very important if you are a snow lover. Here is another interesting nugget that came from our affiliate Eric Webb who if you still want to see some of his work here on the website look up his name in the search bar.

He mentions in a tweet that you will see bellow something that is worth noting and it fits right in line with my winter outlook. Take a quick look and I encourage all weather enthusiast to follow Eric Webb on twitter. @webberweather

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