Midwest Weather Blog

to snow or not to snow

Now About This Sunday-Monday Storm

I have been reluctant to post about this storm because of the rapid changes even up to the waning hours of the storms arrival. But part of forecasting is taking risks. Right now the storm is modeled to strengthen and come straight across and through Maryland and Delaware. Yesterday and the days prior the storm had been suppressed by cold air that was coming down from Canada and even more interesting is that for the past 2-3 weeks the storm had been modeled to do the same thing. Something tells me that this storm is a little too far north on the models and the Euro the last run came about 25-35 miles south and the Canadian model is still farther south than most of the other models. This will be an open blog and as the model runs come in we will update. Right now I will side with the Canadian with the slightly southern track and anyone Baltimore North should see all snow from this event. Now South of Baltimore is where the questions will lie. That may not be answered until the afternoon computer model runs tomorrow. First up the NAM

NAM COMPUTER MODEL:00Z RUN 

If you were looking for a shift south, that did not happen. In actuality it took a jog to the north and now all the way into southern PA it looks like a snow to rain situation. It very briefly goes back to snow at the end. Heaviest Snow is about where this past weeks blizzard was,  Northern PA, and southern New England. NYC gets about 3-6 inches but with every run it gets closer and closer to a rainy scenario.

nam

GFS MODEL RUN 00z RUN

The GFS model stays its course and is south of the NAM model by about 75-100 miles. One noticeable thing is the strength of the High pressure to its north. It is stronger on this run. However that wont matter if the high pressure stays to the northwest of the storm and not to the north of the storm. With this run Heavy snow goes through Pennsylvania Philly mixes some but its a mainly snow event. NYC and Boston all snow Jackpot on this run. Have to watch the strength of the High pressure though if that gets stronger there is a chance this gets suppressed farther down to the south. But for now it starts off DC/Baltimore as Light snow to moderate rain then back to moderate snow before quickly ending and getting colder. Big winners Pennsylvania, New Jersey and NYC and Boston/Southern New England.

gfs_asnow_us_14

CANADIAN MODEL 00z RUN

The Canadian followed Course and it went north as well. It seems we have a storm track folks. Low pressure will develop on this run and move up the apps. Front end Snow DC/Baltimore, then quick change over. Moderate to heavy snow most of PA, Boston and NYC and southern New England get another monster snowstorm. This is there 2009-2010 winter season that the mid-Atlantic saw a few years ago.

I_nw_g1_EST_2015013100_058

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