Northeast weather blog

People Asking For Snow. . . . Sorry To Say But NO Big Snow Likely Anytime Soon

A lot of people have been asking about system after system and what will likely happen with them. For those in the mid-Atlantic and aI-95 Corridor things just are not set up at this current time for heavy snow events. NO im not talking about slop events such as snow to ice and then rain. Im talking straight snow. Why well lets talk about that shall we?

First off a factor that we have to consider is the state of the NAO , AO and PNA, the NAO has remained neutral since really October. The AO has really been neutral to positive for most of November and December. That combination does not bode well for big snows in the east because cold air needed and blocking needed is not available with and NAO And AO like this. The PNA has averaged neutral to negative since the start of the month of December. If you want big snows and cold in the east what you typically want is a positive PNA because of the factor that it means there is a ridge in the west which on the contrary means there is a trough in the east. ¬†Which results in Cold and Snow. As we can see here the way the pattern is currently set up, for the most part even if a storm system at this point were to take the “PERFECT PATH” you would have problems with temperatures being where they needed to be in order to support snowfall.

ao-sprd2nao-sprd2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A perfect example is what the GFS model (Which is the model i am mainly using this year for my predictions as it has been more reliable than the Euro since its update) said a few days ago about a possible coastal low turned nor-Easter. This is yesterdays 18Z model which shows a storm riding up the coast. perfect position if you want east coast snow but not a lot of cold air to deal with or it shows up too late for the big cities. Interior sections likely will have some snow but it will be sketchy. We will have further updates as we head into the future as well as my winter forecast that flows in line with what we have seen over the last couple of weeks.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41

More from Northeast

PATH TO WINTER: OCTOBER 1ST-10TH WEATHER PATTERN ANALYSIS

On this segment of PATH TO WINTER¬†we are going to keep a look at the weather patterns that are happening over the month of October that may give us some key insight into what will occur this upcoming winter season. … read more