Northeast weather blog

My 2014-2015 Winter Forecast 2nd Update

Good evening everyone, I hope everyone is doing well. Well lets get started talking about this upcoming winter. So to start off is this winter going to be an La-Nina or an El-Nino winter? Well my thoughts right now is that this winter is going to be an El-Nino winter. Now how strong the El-Nino is still a big question at the moment. I am currently thinking this winter is going to be a weak El-Nino, some models are calling for a moderate El-Nino, but most of the models are leaning towards a Weak El-Nino. Heres what a typical Weak-Moderate El-Nino looks like. (Image Below).
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I have looked at the past El-Ninos over the past 50 years,(starting in 1960) and this year could look familiar to the 2009-2010 winter, but with differences of course. Heres a picture of the El-Ninos since 1960 (Image Below).
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The chart Im about to show you is the different SST anomalies depicting on how weak or strong the El-Nino will be this upcoming winter. (Image Below).14-15 winter3
I have closely looked at the sea surface heights out over the equitorial Pacific and it too is showing warmer waters over the equitorial Pacific which typically indicates an El-Nino is forming, and by the looks of it, its also showing Weak El-Nino conditions for this upcoming winter.
(Image Below).
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The next image is just another SST anomoly showing the warmer waters over the equitorial Pacific and its also showing a warm PDO which genearlly creates a high pressure ridge over the West Coast, which typically brings warmer and drier air over the Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest and reaches over to the interior West. A warm PDO also creates a trough over the Eastern United States up into the Great Lakes, which typically means
colder than normal conditions over the Great Lakes and Eastern United States. (Images Below).
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Heres a look at what one of the models are predicting for this upcoming winter temperature wise. It shows Warm temperatures over the West and Shivering temperatures over the Eastern United States. (Image Below).
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Now lets get to what I think this winter is going to be like for the upcoming 2014-2015 winter. The first map shows the temperatures for this upcoming winter with a temperature chart key. (2 Images Below).
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The next map shows the precipitation forecast for this upcoming winter along with a precipitation chart key. (2 Images Below).
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The third map shows what I think about the snowfall for this upcoming winter along with a snowfall chart key. (2 Images Below).
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The final map is split up into 15 different regions as an Overall Outlook. (Image Below).
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Region 1: Expect to see warmer and dryer than normal conditions with slightly below normal snowfall.
Region 2: Expect to see slightly warmer and slightly drier than normal condtions with slightly below normal snowfall.
Region 3: Expect to see slightly warmer and wetter than normal conditions with slightly below normal snowfall.
Region 4: Expect to see normal temperatures with wetter than normal conditions and normal snowfall.
Region 5: Expect to see normal temperatures with slightly wetter than normal conditions and normal snowfall.
Region 6: Expect to see an overall average winter.
Region 7: Expect to see normal temperatures with normal precipitation and slightly above normal snowfall.
Region 8: Expect to see slightly below to below normal temperatures with slightly wetter than normal precipitation and normal snowfall.
Region 9: Expect to see below normal temperatures with wetter than normal precipitation and normal snowfall.
Region 10: Expect to see below normal temperatures with normal to slightly wetter than normal precipitation and slightly above normal snowfall (Region 10 will most likly be the winter battle zone region).
Region 11: Expect to see well below normal temperatures with normal precipitation and above normal snowfall.
Region 12: Expect to see below normal temperatures with normal precipitation and above normal snowfall.
Region 13: Expect to see well below normal temperatures with normal precipitation and slightly above normal snowfall.
Region 14: Expect to see slightly below to below normal temperatures with normal precipitation and normal to slightly below normal snowfall.
Region 15: Expect to see slightly below normal temperatures with normal percipitation and normal snowfall.

Also here is my current thinking with the El-Nino and my confidence with this forecast.
Weak El-Nino-65%
Moderate El-Nino-25%
Nuetral Phase-10%
Confidence-70%
Well there you have it everyone, thats my 2014-2015 winter forecast 2nd update. If ya’ll have any questions please ask and I will get back to you. I hope you enjoyed the forecast. Have a great night everyone!

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