https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2smo5XwYMc ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-80616 Eric Wed, 12 Jun 2013 13:37:44 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-80616 @Derickeugeneree & Jason

Well, we shall see about that, as I have observed a few negative signs recently that don’t appear to be as favorable for significant activity this year (weakening Atlantic Tripole signature, oncoming potential modiki el nino (a lot like 2004), but of course it will also be a matter of the atmosphere having enough time to respond to these changes, and that may be an issue)

Well, I’m not going to go into storm tracks at the moment, but given the factors at hand such as the strong hurricane landfalling season that shows correlation to cold & snowy Decembers in the eastern US, and also I am starting to get hints despite current popular thinking for la nina conditions this upcoming winter that we may actually see a modiki or central Pacific el nino, which is extremely favorable for winter patterns in the US because when you are under a warm AMO, with the tropical Atlantic warmer in a general sense, what this does is it focuses rising motion over the central Pacific and the Atlantic, and in between these two areas of relatively low pressure, there is a substantial pressure rise, and unlike what would be the case in the winter, pressure rises over our general area (North America), which stands in between these two zones of lowering pressures over the central equatorial Pacific and Atlantic, forces cold air into North America because this region of relative sinking air is focused near North America, and considering the fact that cold air sinks, it is a positive sign to have relative sinking air tropically aligned with the US, which is what a modiki el nino does. The reason we probably won’t see a full-blown classic east-based el nino is because we are in a cold PDO, and it is simply much harder with cold water being infused into the central Pacific for any appreciable el nino to get going, also the AMO is warm, and this makes it harder for the Pacific to warm up in relation to the Atlantic, also the fact that we already have colder than normal waters over the eastern Pacific will make it tougher for a significant el nino to take shape, thus we are more than likely to see a “modiki” el nino, and if this is the case then winter is likely to be quite fun (if you’re a snowlover of course, lol). We will see what happens, just a few preliminary thoughts of mine at the moment.

@Derickeugeneree I think it’s to early to say that the winter of 2013-2014 will be paralyzing, the safest bet is to look at the weather advance preliminary forecast that Dante and expect changes but all in all 2 bad winters in a row do have tendancies to bring big ones after them. stay tuned. ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-80060 midatlanticweather Tue, 11 Jun 2013 23:24:29 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-80060 Did you see my comment about Evan? ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-80059 Derickeugeneree Tue, 11 Jun 2013 23:20:16 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-80059 Eric are you saying that this winter could have large and could also be paralizing ones? ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-80058 Eric Tue, 11 Jun 2013 23:06:11 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-80058 @bloggers
This may be a topic of significant discussion in my next post which I hope to have out by late this week, and along with Andrea which I will show relations to the PDO & AMO cycles, among other things I’ll talk about. This is what is on my mind at the moment.
Currently monitoring the progression of the MJO and I’m concerned that a major pattern change is about to unfold within the next few weeks as the MJO entering the western Pacific is likely to trigger a major equatorial Kelvin Wave, which will help to greatly erode and potentially even completely erase the cool ENSO neutral or “la nina like” conditions in the eastern Pacific, because the Kelvin Wave along with the MJO, both being one of the few weather phenomena that move from west to east in the tropics (against the natural gradient that is east to west under the Hadley Cell), disturbs the natural thermocline in the Pacific, (a reaction in part also triggered by thunderstorm development and the slowing of the easterly trade winds) by forcing a large push of warm water across the Pacific. Now, given we are in a cold PDO, where la ninas are favored and the fact that the water in the eastern Pacific is currently quite cool, it will be fairly difficult to get a full-blown el nino. Also, given the fact that AMO (Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (meridional generally refers to something in the poleward direction or north-south)) is in its warm state, compared to the Pacific, which is in its cold cycle, the relation to the Atlantic being warm also makes it that much harder for the Pacific to enforce an el nino, thus the most likely solution to me appears to be a weak, “Modiki” el nino where the warmest waters are focused towards the central Pacific, and this is interestingly A LOT like 2004 hurricane season (remember that is one of my top 5 analogs I released in March for the upcoming season) and even to some extent the 1969 hurricane season, also an analog year. Also, a central Pacific el nino or modiki el nino has major implications on the US winter pattern, in that it makes the potential for heavy winter snows & sustained cold a much more likely scenario, and given that I also anticipate this year to be an active landfalling season, at the very least, the start of winter in December is likely to be well below normal and snowier than normal east of the Mississippi. Also, a bit of good news regarding the hurricane season, the Atlantic Tripole Signature (warm in the high-latitudes, cold in the middle, warm in the deep tropical Atlantic or MDR (Main Development Region) has weakened considerably since March & April, and this generally means a slight cooling of the AMO has occurred, Thus, with this information along with a warming Pacific from a potentially large Kelvin Wave across the Pacific in the long range, this makes the hurricane season forecasts a little bit more uncertain, and also given the situation of abnormally neutral ENSO, cold PDO, warm AMO, a pattern many of the models are unfamiliar with, will likely result in highly variable forecasts in the models as well, but I will continue to stick with my original ideas from March.
Interesting revelations for sure, but regardless, with a major MJO push into the western Pacific (octants 5 & 6), this is a huge pattern changer for the US, in that those phases of the MJO tend to favor large-scale warming and heat waves across the US, thus look for the pattern to turn much warmer as we progress through June and approach July, especially east of the Rockies. ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-79926 midatlanticweather Tue, 11 Jun 2013 20:13:51 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-79926 I had Evan made this against him for TheNintenguy making fun of my screen recorded voice and took my most crappiest sounding videos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9aZ19leR4U ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/2013/06/10/first-ten-days-of-june-below-average-for-most-of-the-northeast/comment-page-1/#comment-79922 midatlanticweather Tue, 11 Jun 2013 20:12:17 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?p=11617#comment-79922 Haha. Dictator Yahmas III isn’t the real Yahmas! This is him: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheNintenguy ]]> http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-79898 Dante' Brown-Royal Tue, 11 Jun 2013 19:43:47 +0000 http://weatheradvance.com/?page_id=11538#comment-79898 @Victor,
My outlooks are not always the same. In my preliminary winter 2011-2012 Outlook I predicted that it would be close to average in the Northeast, snowfall and precipitation wise. ALL of my outlooks are backed up by evidence and reasoning? May I ask, did you read the entire post? That explains why, the outlook is the way it is. Another factor is that, the patterns have been fairly similar winter after winter. This forecast is explained inside out within the post. My spelling is not always the best, as i have openly admitted on this site in the past. I also in this outlook mentioned that i am only going off of preliminary observations, that seem to be more stable for predicting winter. This outlook will change as we head towards winter. I forecast the weather based off facts, anylogs and weather patterns, not just throw anything on a map that i am hoping for. My forecasts are usually quite accurate, except for the winter of 2011-2012, where just about everyone’s winter forecast busted. I hope i answered your questions effectively. Take care.