So now the time has come. After the 1st major winter snowstorm of the season passing late in October of 2011. (Historic Snowstorm at That) People are wondering what is in store for the rest of the winter. Well O will tell you this. It will be a very cold and active winter as we head into the winter and will be colder than average in much of the nation. With that said lets dig right into this.
State of the – NAO, AO, PNA, and The LA Nina:
The state of the NAO, AO and PNA can’t be overlooked when it comes to being able to tell what the weather will be like in the coming months. They tell so much of what the weather pattern will be like coming up. Right now the NAO & AO have hovered between neutral and positive for the past couple of months. Yet temperatures so far this month have hovered bellow average, for the most part. Right now I think it will make a turn to remain neutral to slightly negative. IT meaning NAO and AO, and I think the PNA will remain on its up and down course, between negative and positive throughout the winter.
Right now looking at how the temperatures have been trending it looks like things have been for the most part colder than average. For the month of October (earlier in the month) I posted a blog, stating that temperatures were averaging a good 3-5 degrees bellow average, and the months in the fall are usually a good indication of what will happen during the winter. Right now that appears to be the setup. So as of right now I expect area’s like Washington D.C, New York city, Boston, Atlanta, Tennessee, Kentucky and Eastern Nevada can expect temperatures to average a good 2-4 degrees bellow average for the winter. Most likely at the beginning portions of it. If you live to the North & West of the major cities you will see temperatures around 4-6 degrees bellow average. Minnesota and Chicago, and also Detroit can expect temps around 4-6 degrees bellow average as well. And lets not forget the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are expected to be about 2-6 degrees bellow average, in this area as well. Around average in-between, like areas in Southern Georgia, Denver Colorado, and Salt Lake City and Oklahoma city. Not saying, it won’t get cold, I am just saying it will waver between colder than average and slightly above average in temps and eventually even itself out by the end of the winter. The Pacific Southwest should be slightly warmer than average and Texas and Southern Louisiana and Florida should be slightly warmer than average as well. This is how I see temperatures shaping up for this upcoming winter.
When it comes to precipitation
General Winter 2011-2012 Forecast Outlook: