Official Winter 2012-2013 Outlook

This has been long awaited for but here it is. My winter forecast at this point of time is primarily focused on the coming El Nino, The Negative trend of the NAO and wavering AO and PNA, as well as the winter weather pattern over the past few seasons.

The NAO has been trending negative: 

The NAO has been trending negative for the past month and a half. There are indications that this may change just slightly but at this point of time, I believe that this trend of the negative NAO is going to continue.

I expect a repeat of the 2002-2003 Winter season with Cold and Snow&ICE in the East and Around Average and Dry in the West

I expect Temperatures To be Bellow Average in the Majority of The Eastern Half Of The United States and for temperatures to be slightly above average in the Pacific Southwest!

The NAO has trended negative over the past month.

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  1. nathan sinclair

    omg love ya
    and i also love weather and im 11 been doing it sense four and never stop when i see something severe i never seen a day with out weather

  2. chuck cardillo

    I AM A WEATHER FANATIC AND I CERTAINLY HOPE YOUR FORCAST IS RIGHT. I LIVE IN TH CATSKILLS AND AFTER LAST WINTER { NON WINTER) I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO A GOOD OLD FASHION WINTER THIS YEAR.

  3. mamyman

    i think the northeast will be slammed this winter

  4. Liam McCoy

    I live in Boise, ID and I hope we get a lot of snow this year.

  5. Wendall

    With any luck, the Middle Atlantic/Northeast will once again have below-average snowfall. That’s my fervent hope. Philly had enough snow in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 to allow us a few lean years (if no snow fell in the Philly area for the next three winters, the average for the six winters would still be the historical average going back to about 1880).

  6. Julie

    With the ocean temps reaching warmer than normal levels, won’t this be a setup for nor-easterners? Living in West Virginia, sometimes the forecasts for the mid-Ohio Valley don’t quite apply for the west central part of the state.
    I am curious if you have ever ( in the fall) looked at Persimmon seeds for a fun way to see what kind of winter we will have. The past 5 years that I have done this, they have been spot on with predicting the winter weather. Sometime this month or next, I will again check this years seeds for their predictions of the 2012-2013 winter. Just for fun, check this years seeds out to see how close their prediction is with yours!

    Julie

  7. cassie

    I checked last year and had spoons and did not get any snow. A dusting one time. I was so disappointed I will check this year but will not take it seriously.

  8. Anthony

    @Wendall
    Well, apparently, that’s NOT going to happen lol
    I have been doing quite a bit of research.
    With the way this el nino pattern is developing, they are calling for a much snowier winter for much of the east coast. Including the mid atlantic region. Even accuweather is predicting it and from other weather sites! Right now, It’s like nearly every time i look up the winter outlooks for this year on the east coast wise, they come back mostly similar of what they keep saying for the eastern part of the United States

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5-oOm1ZBGg&feature=plcp

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjguX94mW40&list=FL5PiaYfhIcZtvW2bV01d7Ng&feature=mh_lolz

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

    http://weatheradvance.com/official-winter-2012-2013-outlook

    I feel confident for what’s in store for the east coast this winter. But it’s like my Aunt would say, “I’ll believe it when i see it” :)

  9. Tony B.

    A lot of this winter’s precip is going to have to do the NAO/AO and PNA/PDO. Just hope it is not another negative PNA/PDO year where the northwest part of the US gets all the precip and the rest of the country is generally drier than average. Seems like is the past 4 years, other than this recent winter, the NAO/AO has been negative. Hopefully we have a negative NAO/AO for this El Nino.

  10. DanneyB

    I have lived in the Tahoe Basin for 26 years, which is long enough to know that nobody can predict the weather here. The best weather predictor in these parts is the weather rock. If it’s wet, its raining, if it’s white it’s snowing, if you can’t see it, its dark.

  11. Anthony

    Weather centre, now they don’t know whats going to happen. their so-called outlook is a bunch of BS.
    it’s like they cannot make up their minds.
    I disagree with their outlook.

  12. Gwenn

    Hoping for another easy winter like last year (northern NJ) as previous year almost killed me. We are landscapers that grow our own trees, hence the need for greenhouses. Know what it’s like to battle snow storms from keeping their roofs from collapsing in & they are 90 ft long! Take a rubber squeege on a 16 ft extention pole & try not to bury yourself in a snowslide once it rips loose, then snow blow around the circumference so the sides don’t collapse in. Can’t use heaters to often as trees will come out of dormancy. How bad was it you ask? I had to stake vegetables all around as the animals (deer, rabbits, etc) kept trying to break in to get at the tree bark. They were that hungry because of the accumulated snow. FYI. found out rabbits prefer bok choy over iceberg

  13. Wendall

    According to Brett Anderson at AccuWeather, the ECMWF says that the NAO will be predominantly positive this winter.

  14. andrew senecal

    my question is in the state of wisconsin when will we get our first measurable snowfall and how much show do you know we will get seasonal total to sum it all up when is the earliest snowfall measurment or the first real snow storm of the season for the madison wisconsin area

  15. SNOW LOVER

    Yeah but the weather forecasters have been wrong alot in the past 10 years. Seems like since we got all this technology they can’t predict the weather that great. They will say sunny and cool and ends up being 90 and humid, or they will say no rain in site for my area then it will pour down. So till i see the snow i don’t believe the forecasters.

  16. Fall Lover

    I absolutely hate the snow, can’t wait to sell my house and retire to somewhere warm.

  17. linda noe

    I have recently become interested in reading the predictions for South Carolina, where I’ve lived my whole life. I was so disappointed to have a warm winter last year, and was hoping to have a cold one. It does not seem like Christmas when it’s 70 degrees. I’m not sure of the weather terms El Nino and Nina. Does anyone know of the prediction for this winter for the coast of SC?

  18. Eric
    Eric

    @ linda noe
    I agree with this forecast above, and I am actually in the process of making a post on my thoughts on this upcoming winter, and I go in depth into the reasons for my thinking and why it will not be like last year, and I explain how this is relating to what we are currently seeing in the pattern.

  19. Generator Power
    Generator Power

    Dante, so far the outlook is on the money for Arkansas.

  20. Vlad

    Can somebody please tell me when the snow is coming for the northeast , many have been sayng we were going to get a lot of snow but it’s already January 15 and still no snow!!!

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