Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Winter Outlook

Winter 2012-2013 left a lot to be desired, with the exception of some late winter snowstorms that effected the mid-west and Northeast and the cold spells that lasted late into the month of may, with even snow falling in the mountainous areas of the northeast Mid-May of 2013. Now was this just winters last gasp? Or was it a sign of things to come. Well we will look into different facets of that as we go through this outlook. Now first as always lets look at the factors that will go into this forecast outlook. Please not that since this outlook is preliminary, not all factors are taken into equation, this is because those other factors have a high probability of changing between now and by time winter comes.

Factors for preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks:

State Of the ENSO- Currently classified as Neutral, but latest surface temperatures show la-nina developing despite models projecting it to go another way. My prediction, Weak La Nina.

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Animation

Looking At The Pattern- The Pattern since late winter, (February & March) up until Now (early June) has favored occasional warm spells but also average to bellow average cool spells in terms of temperature. Pattern seems to favor several spells of cool weather, will have to see if this pattern continues. Also if you have been following the posts on weatheradvance.com you can tell that we have had a number of systems ride up the coast, whether it be post tropical systems (Andrea) or just systems that developed. They have moved up the coast in a favorable track for snow. Last time we saw this pattern develop this early (winter of 2009-2010). (*NOT calling for anything close to winter of 2009-2010*)

I have related this summer, and this upcoming hurricane season to the 2005 year. However I do not see the winter of 2013-2014 being quite like that year. It started off colder than average in December and then turned into an all out torch. That year also happened to be a la nina year. But why isnt this the best analog then? Well consider that, during the prior winter, there was a weak to moderate el nino in place. This year, we are going from a neutral phase to a possible weak la nina. Now Typically during weak la nina years it favors more snow in the Eastern half of the nation. I will use Washington d.c as an example. (Bellow) Washington D.C typically has about 15″ of snow a year. During a weak la nina year though it usually is above average snowfall wise. This theme typically repeats itself up and into the northeast and in the Midwest.

small_DCA_La_Nina_snowfall

So what do i think will happen this winter with all of this in mind? Well It will be colder than average in the Eastern half of the United States, With the exception of January where I believe we will see a mild January thaw in the east, However no where near the state that we had the 2005-2006 winter. Winter Will get off to an early start in the east, picking up where it left off this past winter late in the year. Fizzle away as we head into January and then come back on near the Mid-Point in February, where I think the brunt of the winter will be. The winter battle zone will be a tricky one though. Right now it extends along the coast in the northeast, southeast of the Big cities, into north and south Carolina, northern Georgia, Tennessee and including Oklahoma. However even a slight change in the weather pattern can cause that area to be shifted north and west and you may be in the area again this year of the slop storms, or just plain rain.

I do believe it will be a wetter than average year in the east, and perhaps even in the pacific northwest. Only may you will be provided with today is the projected temperature maps and snowfall departure from normal maps. Any questions on the winter outlook, please leave them bellow and I will try to answer them.Temperature predictions US

snowfall predictions US

mid-atlantic Banner

  1. Look For Pattern Of Late Last Winter To Pick up where it left off, starting early winter.
  2. Winter Will get off to a fast start.
  3. January Thaw Will Come But Will Not be as bad as 2011-2012 winter.
  4. Weak La Nina Seems slightly favorable for upcoming winter.
  5. Weak La Nina’s Favor More Snow in The Mid-Atlantic.
  6. Worst Of Winter Will be North And West Of I-95.
snowfall predictions mid-atlantic

Preliminary Snowfall Predictions Mid-Atlantic

Temperature Outlook (Mid-Atlantic)

Temperature Outlook (Mid-Atlantic)

Southeast Banner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Winter looks like it will be wet, but sloppy snowfall wise.
  2. Winter Battle Zone looks to be stretched across the northern half of the gulf coast states, but could be shifted northward.
  3. Slightly above average temperatures along the gulf coast.
  4. Winter will get off to a fast start, and will slow down as the winter progresses the further south you go.
Snowfall predictions southeast

Preliminary Snowfall Predictions Southeast

Preliminary temperature predictions southeast

Preliminary temperature predictions southeast

85 comments on “Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Winter Outlook

  1. Hi I live in the Pacific North West Spokane can you tell me if we will get a lot of snow this season
    Thank you look forward to your answer

  2. in reading all of your info, you seem to have forgotten that arizona and new mexico actually exist and that we do get severe winter weather in the higher and more northern elevations of both states. Is there any way for you to add the southwest, both desert and mountain regions to your forecasts?

  3. I also live in northwest Ohio Toledo Mich. boarder some how we escape all extreme weather.I am a snowmobiler,so we chase the snow up north Mich. ( but not the U.P) Do you see thing indicating Toledo will have any major blast? So that I be out on the roads on my snowmobile, ( when every one else’s cars are buried and stranded) Also how is Gaylord, Grayling, Cadillac Mich. looking?
    Thanks for your time

  4. Well living in Central NY State I’m thinking I may have made a very wise investment in buying new snow tires for both vehicles this year…

  5. Thanks for the info, but the spelling on this site leaves something to be desired. Your graphics all say “BELLOW” instead of “BELOW.” Not acceptable in a news source.

  6. Dante, I have enjoyed your posts for several years now, and appreciate yuour efforts. I was just reading all the negative posts and thought you could use a positive one. You do a great job and I thank you for all you do. People should not hide behind their computers and post negative things. I will leave my misspelled words as they are.

  7. What is your prediction for us out here in the Pacific Northwest? Been unseasonably warm (low 70s) here. Do you expect that trend to continue? Love your stuff!

  8. This is very informative, I must say, we could do without the spelling police Jeff. Your post makes you look like a real jerk, not the smart guy you wish you were.

  9. Best guess. Will the Northern Oregon Coast get any snow? White Christmas perhaps? not looking for a “dependable” answer, i know that far out is gonna be a guesstimate at best. Just looking for the intuition of a knowledgeable person.
    Thanx for your time and work. it is appreciated.

  10. Enjoy your posts. We had soooo much rain in Georgia this past summer and late spring that I don’t care if I see another drop of rain in any form for another year. Seriously, we had maybe, maybe, 5 days of sun the Whole Summer of 2013! That’s in Georgia, where almost everyday during the summer you get some sun! Lots of damage to homes, roads, crops, people’s spirits, etc. Flash floods caused much damage in Atlanta. Tell me, tell me, please, that we are NOT going to get any more precipitation in the Winter of 2014. Also, I would love to see a hot and dry spring and summer in ’14 as well.

    Sincerely,
    Beth

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  14. Why is the state of North Carolina no longer getting any severe weather? We used to get ice, snow, thunderstorms, etc… but for the past 10 to 15 years nothing substantial has came our way. Instead we get warm temps and occasional rain. Even thunderstorms in the summer have been almost non existant.

  15. I am planning a road trip I live in Washington state and around march 19th we will be driving to Indiana. We have to go threw a lot of mountains and snowy states trying to get a idea of what the weather will be for a drive around that time we will be head back to washington around the first of April I know it’s just a prediction but anything gives me a idea of what to expect thank you.

  16. i’m from indiana :) northern that is i hope your right about above average snow fall that’s why i live here!! SO BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!

  17. Any word on the wintry weather headed towards the South the end of this week? Particularily, Northwest Georgia? Thank you:)

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