Winter 2012-2013 left a lot to be desired, with the exception of some late winter snowstorms that effected the mid-west and Northeast and the cold spells that lasted late into the month of may, with even snow falling in the mountainous areas of the northeast Mid-May of 2013. Now was this just winters last gasp? Or was it a sign of things to come. Well we will look into different facets of that as we go through this outlook. Now first as always lets look at the factors that will go into this forecast outlook. Please not that since this outlook is preliminary, not all factors are taken into equation, this is because those other factors have a high probability of changing between now and by time winter comes.
Factors for preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks:
State Of the ENSO- Currently classified as Neutral, but latest surface temperatures show la-nina developing despite models projecting it to go another way. My prediction, Weak La Nina.
Looking At The Pattern- The Pattern since late winter, (February & March) up until Now (early June) has favored occasional warm spells but also average to bellow average cool spells in terms of temperature. Pattern seems to favor several spells of cool weather, will have to see if this pattern continues. Also if you have been following the posts on weatheradvance.com you can tell that we have had a number of systems ride up the coast, whether it be post tropical systems (Andrea) or just systems that developed. They have moved up the coast in a favorable track for snow. Last time we saw this pattern develop this early (winter of 2009-2010). (*NOT calling for anything close to winter of 2009-2010*)
I have related this summer, and this upcoming hurricane season to the 2005 year. However I do not see the winter of 2013-2014 being quite like that year. It started off colder than average in December and then turned into an all out torch. That year also happened to be a la nina year. But why isnt this the best analog then? Well consider that, during the prior winter, there was a weak to moderate el nino in place. This year, we are going from a neutral phase to a possible weak la nina. Now Typically during weak la nina years it favors more snow in the Eastern half of the nation. I will use Washington d.c as an example. (Bellow) Washington D.C typically has about 15″ of snow a year. During a weak la nina year though it usually is above average snowfall wise. This theme typically repeats itself up and into the northeast and in the Midwest.
So what do i think will happen this winter with all of this in mind? Well It will be colder than average in the Eastern half of the United States, With the exception of January where I believe we will see a mild January thaw in the east, However no where near the state that we had the 2005-2006 winter. Winter Will get off to an early start in the east, picking up where it left off this past winter late in the year. Fizzle away as we head into January and then come back on near the Mid-Point in February, where I think the brunt of the winter will be. The winter battle zone will be a tricky one though. Right now it extends along the coast in the northeast, southeast of the Big cities, into north and south Carolina, northern Georgia, Tennessee and including Oklahoma. However even a slight change in the weather pattern can cause that area to be shifted north and west and you may be in the area again this year of the slop storms, or just plain rain.
I do believe it will be a wetter than average year in the east, and perhaps even in the pacific northwest. Only may you will be provided with today is the projected temperature maps and snowfall departure from normal maps. Any questions on the winter outlook, please leave them bellow and I will try to answer them.
- Look For Pattern Of Late Last Winter To Pick up where it left off, starting early winter.
- Winter Will get off to a fast start.
- January Thaw Will Come But Will Not be as bad as 2011-2012 winter.
- Weak La Nina Seems slightly favorable for upcoming winter.
- Weak La Nina’s Favor More Snow in The Mid-Atlantic.
- Worst Of Winter Will be North And West Of I-95.
- Winter looks like it will be wet, but sloppy snowfall wise.
- Winter Battle Zone looks to be stretched across the northern half of the gulf coast states, but could be shifted northward.
- Slightly above average temperatures along the gulf coast.
- Winter will get off to a fast start, and will slow down as the winter progresses the further south you go.