Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Winter Outlook

Winter 2012-2013 left a lot to be desired, with the exception of some late winter snowstorms that effected the mid-west and Northeast and the cold spells that lasted late into the month of may, with even snow falling in the mountainous areas of the northeast Mid-May of 2013. Now was this just winters last gasp? Or was it a sign of things to come. Well we will look into different facets of that as we go through this outlook. Now first as always lets look at the factors that will go into this forecast outlook. Please not that since this outlook is preliminary, not all factors are taken into equation, this is because those other factors have a high probability of changing between now and by time winter comes.

Factors for preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks:

State Of the ENSO- Currently classified as Neutral, but latest surface temperatures show la-nina developing despite models projecting it to go another way. My prediction, Weak La Nina.

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Animation

Looking At The Pattern- The Pattern since late winter, (February & March) up until Now (early June) has favored occasional warm spells but also average to bellow average cool spells in terms of temperature. Pattern seems to favor several spells of cool weather, will have to see if this pattern continues. Also if you have been following the posts on weatheradvance.com you can tell that we have had a number of systems ride up the coast, whether it be post tropical systems (Andrea) or just systems that developed. They have moved up the coast in a favorable track for snow. Last time we saw this pattern develop this early (winter of 2009-2010). (*NOT calling for anything close to winter of 2009-2010*)

I have related this summer, and this upcoming hurricane season to the 2005 year. However I do not see the winter of 2013-2014 being quite like that year. It started off colder than average in December and then turned into an all out torch. That year also happened to be a la nina year. But why isnt this the best analog then? Well consider that, during the prior winter, there was a weak to moderate el nino in place. This year, we are going from a neutral phase to a possible weak la nina. Now Typically during weak la nina years it favors more snow in the Eastern half of the nation. I will use Washington d.c as an example. (Bellow) Washington D.C typically has about 15″ of snow a year. During a weak la nina year though it usually is above average snowfall wise. This theme typically repeats itself up and into the northeast and in the Midwest.

small_DCA_La_Nina_snowfall

So what do i think will happen this winter with all of this in mind? Well It will be colder than average in the Eastern half of the United States, With the exception of January where I believe we will see a mild January thaw in the east, However no where near the state that we had the 2005-2006 winter. Winter Will get off to an early start in the east, picking up where it left off this past winter late in the year. Fizzle away as we head into January and then come back on near the Mid-Point in February, where I think the brunt of the winter will be. The winter battle zone will be a tricky one though. Right now it extends along the coast in the northeast, southeast of the Big cities, into north and south Carolina, northern Georgia, Tennessee and including Oklahoma. However even a slight change in the weather pattern can cause that area to be shifted north and west and you may be in the area again this year of the slop storms, or just plain rain.

I do believe it will be a wetter than average year in the east, and perhaps even in the pacific northwest. Only may you will be provided with today is the projected temperature maps and snowfall departure from normal maps. Any questions on the winter outlook, please leave them bellow and I will try to answer them.Temperature predictions US

snowfall predictions US

mid-atlantic Banner

  1. Look For Pattern Of Late Last Winter To Pick up where it left off, starting early winter.
  2. Winter Will get off to a fast start.
  3. January Thaw Will Come But Will Not be as bad as 2011-2012 winter.
  4. Weak La Nina Seems slightly favorable for upcoming winter.
  5. Weak La Nina’s Favor More Snow in The Mid-Atlantic.
  6. Worst Of Winter Will be North And West Of I-95.
snowfall predictions mid-atlantic

Preliminary Snowfall Predictions Mid-Atlantic

Temperature Outlook (Mid-Atlantic)

Temperature Outlook (Mid-Atlantic)

Southeast Banner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Winter looks like it will be wet, but sloppy snowfall wise.
  2. Winter Battle Zone looks to be stretched across the northern half of the gulf coast states, but could be shifted northward.
  3. Slightly above average temperatures along the gulf coast.
  4. Winter will get off to a fast start, and will slow down as the winter progresses the further south you go.
Snowfall predictions southeast

Preliminary Snowfall Predictions Southeast

Preliminary temperature predictions southeast

Preliminary temperature predictions southeast

84 comments on “Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Winter Outlook

  1. Pingback: Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Outlook Available… » Weather Advance Storm Center

  2. Why are your outlooks always the same? Always below average in great lakes and interior northeast. Hot in southwest. Colder in northwest. It’s about the same every single year. And it’s “below” not “bellow.” Also the title doesn’t make sense. Preliminary Winter 2013-2014 Winter Outlook? Why did you write “winter” twice? You should really read over your stuff before publishing it.

  3. @Victor,
    My outlooks are not always the same. In my preliminary winter 2011-2012 Outlook I predicted that it would be close to average in the Northeast, snowfall and precipitation wise. ALL of my outlooks are backed up by evidence and reasoning? May I ask, did you read the entire post? That explains why, the outlook is the way it is. Another factor is that, the patterns have been fairly similar winter after winter. This forecast is explained inside out within the post. My spelling is not always the best, as i have openly admitted on this site in the past. I also in this outlook mentioned that i am only going off of preliminary observations, that seem to be more stable for predicting winter. This outlook will change as we head towards winter. I forecast the weather based off facts, anylogs and weather patterns, not just throw anything on a map that i am hoping for. My forecasts are usually quite accurate, except for the winter of 2011-2012, where just about everyone’s winter forecast busted. I hope i answered your questions effectively. Take care.

  4. When do you anticipate the first heavy snowfall for the Pacific to Inland Northwest, say from Spokane to Portland? Some years it has begun as early as Halloween, most years it begins around Thanksgiving. In light years, we may not see substantial snow until Christmas.

    What is your bet for the winter of 2013-2014?

    Thanks,
    Jeff

  5. Big time snow lover here! live far north of the atlanta georgia area…..hardly no snow here last two winters….please tell me we will see alot more snow this coming winter…..thx carey

  6. I live in Northern KY just south of the Ohio border. What does our snowfall prediction look like for 2013/2014?

  7. Hello, I just moved tomFrazier Park CA. In the mountains of southern CA. I have never been here for a winter and have a 3 yr old. Can you tell me what you are forecasting for snow and rain for the mountains of SoCal ? I want to be prepared. Thank you.

  8. i live in Chambersburg,pa will there accually be a ice age this winter for the mid-atlantic and will it snow from October through April or is it too early to tell?

  9. @derickeugeneree
    I’ve actually been doing some research into the upcoming winter, & if you read the tweets I post on out twitter account I talk about the AAO (AntArctic Oscillation) index connection to the following northern hemisphere’s AO which suggests that this winter may indeed see yet another -NAO & if you extrapolate my hurricane season analogs into the next winter, you’ll be able to see that a lot of them are colder than normal especially from the northern plains & Great Lakes and points southeastward into the eastern US & southern US. I’ve also begun to take into consideration the PDO, which looks like it has briefly spiked into its warm cycle this summer, & looking at years in which there was a warm spike in the PDO during its cold cycle in the summer, you get some very cold winters, one of them being 1978 (I don’t know if you remember the Blizzard of 1978, one of the most infamous winter storms & its right up there with the blizzard of 1996 & snowmaggedon 2010 storms) & in fact that previous hurricane season of 1977 was almost an analog for this year, but it had no Cape Verde systems so I removed it, but that hurricane season, like so many others in my analog package had a category 5 hurricane that year (Anita) which luckily just missed south Texas. Now, getting back to the winter, I currently favor at the very least a cold start to winter, however a few conflicting factors like the Bering Sea ridge, PDO, & ENSO are still somewhat “foggy” at this time, thus its hard to forecast the entire winter, but I am definitely on the side that favors a generally cold winter this year from the northern plains southeastward into the Great Lakes & eastern US. We’ll also have to see how other things like northern hemisphere snowfall anomaly for October & of course stratospheric warming events (which actually are in high likelihood this year because we are near the peak of the solar cycle) which can lead to rather large arctic air intrusions into the mid-latitudes, sometimes even the US. We’ll see how this goes, but wouldn’t be all too surprised if it snows in October or April as my hurricane analogs extrapolated into the following winter & years with significant east coast hurricanes are generally favored periods for early & late snowfalls to occur outside of winter. We’ll have to see what happens though.

  10. I live in the northeast section of Massachusetts. I’m in the zone of Winter Battle Zone and I love snow. I want to now what Winter Battle Zone means. Does it mean way above average or below?

  11. Hi Dante’
    I live in Baltimore, MD I am a true snow lover will BMore see any good snow this winter and what are the chances of a White Christmas here?

  12. Pingback: 2014 Winter Weather Prediction From Weatheradvance.com - Unofficialnetworks.com

  13. Pingback: Above-Average Snowfall Predicted This Winter | NORTHEAST EXPLORER

  14. Victor the first person to comment sounds like a complete tool. So does zwyts from the American Weather forum who makes fun of this. Zwyts couldn’t forecast if he took a piss in the morning let alone a season forecast.

  15. several things here.. FIRST no data at all shows LA NINA for this winter.. That is Just WISH CASTING.

    here is the CFS ENSO region 3.4…
    http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

    from IRI as of JULY 16
    http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.gif

    and the ECMWF for region 3.4 .. strongly favors weak El Nino
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201307!chart.gif

    SECOND… your forecast for LAST winter was bad..You had it way too cold too early and way too Much with the snow

    http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Weather-Advance-Winter-Outlook-2012-2013-General-Outlook.png

    DT

  16. @DT
    May i bring out that these same models foretasted an el nino LAST YEAR, and they were incorrect. I am looking at the current conditions in the pacific ocean which have been trending colder, contrary to what the models have said. I show you the graphic from NOAA, of a cool area of Water spreading from the eastern pacific and growing west. Right now, Im sticking with that forecast. Im not model hugging, I look at the models, but look at the current conditions as well. Also, last winter, was colder than average, and snowier than average in several areas of the northeast. Winter amped up later in the year for the Mid-Atlantic but several areas in new england saw major snow’s. And in the upper midwest. My point is that you can’t always follow the models. You also have to observe current conditions to see if they are following up with the models. So far over the past 3 months they HAVE NOT. I look at the trends my friend, forecasting is not all about looking at the models, but also current conditions and weather trends. My forecast was not entirely accurate last year, but it was not entirely wrong either. thanks for your comment. I do not wishcast, I never wishcast, if its factually not gonna happen its not gonna happen, im not gonna say its going to do something it will not, thats not forecasting. And as i mentioned earlier, forecasting is not looking at what those models are saying and basing everything off of them, its a lot more than that. This is my educated guess based off of facts. Good day sir.

  17. Pingback: USA Winter Weather Forecast for 2014 from WeatherAdvance.com | SnowBrains.com

  18. I live in Montana and the winters have not been as cold and snowy as they were 20 years ago. Do you look for a return to those “good old days” when we had lots of snow and cold. I’m a avid snowboarder and am hoping for a nice snowy winter. I’m wish casting but what do you think? Please tell me it’s going to be a very snowy 2013-2014 winter.

  19. I read on Farmer’s Almanac –and dont know how accurate they are, or if it’s wive’s tales– where they say that if you have excess spider webs and rodents, the coming winter (snow) will be BAD; which would be winter 2013-2014.
    Last winter was pretty mild with one small snow here. Is this a true prediction for 2013-2014 in Eastern TN and No.Georgia??
    BTW: We have more spiderwebs on our windows than I have EVER seen… :(( and have had more mice inside the house than in last 11 yrs here.
    There are very specific reasons I need to know! Thank you.

  20. hello from sunny and very hot corpus christi i live on the gulf coast it has been a extreme summer cant wait for some cooler temps 80 would be ok for me what can we expect this winter and when will it bless us.I would like to know if we have a chance for any of the white stuff this winter season as well as some good rain.

  21. Predictions of any kind are at best very hard to do. It is a fortune telling scenario that uses past maps, average this or that, current trends (which are current, not future), and a sun that is constantly going into and out of maximum and minimum cycles. Not even the meteorologists out there make hard and fast predictions…always hedging, using words like “may”, and “possible” since they also don’t want to take a chance of being wrong if it rains on someone’s parade. I say if you’ve lived anywhere for any length of time, you pretty much know what your weather is like in any one season, give or take. Prepare for the worst scenario and hope for the best.

  22. why do you stop your weather map at the Canadian/USA border ? Does the weather not continue on over the border? Would it not actually help show the patterns better if you did included Canada in, the same as the weather maps you get.

  23. Thank you for this. I am a huge fan of snow who lives in NE Ohio. I can’t stand warm weather and just want this summer to be over so I can bust out my snow tires. I get that long-range weather predictions are iffy (at best) but… I can still hope for an early, snowy season. Fingers crossed.

  24. @Philip & @David my reputation proceeds me, you don’t have to believe the prediction. Spelling is not my strong point, but i am a pretty accurate weather forecaster, and that my friend proceeds me. I do my best to proofread my articles, I have noticed the error in the article, but it will be updated September 1st anyway, so the forecast will likely be deleted. Thank you for the comment and have a nice day

  25. Pingback: US Winter Forecast - *2013/2014 ENSO & Detailed Seasonal Models Update. | KasimsWeatherWatcher.com

  26. I live in Greece, NY a suburb of Rochester, NY Can you give me any idea of the snowfall in the Greece area being close to Lake Ontario ? and how it will effect the area as well as Irondequoit, NY to please

  27. i live in quapaw oklahoma, i was wandering if we will see any heavy snow fall this winter? last winter was rather disapointing we need a winter come back!!

  28. Pingback: 2013-2014 Snow Forecast for Wisconsin | Ski With Tony

  29. Pingback: Looks like a long Winter. | Survivalist Camps

  30. Hi Dante’,
    Thank you for all the hard work you put into providing us with this analysis.

    I live in the PNW and am hoping for a good ski season, it looks like you are predicting a “normal” year?

    Thanks!

  31. Can you let me know what the models show for the western suburbs of Philadelphia and the City of Philadelphia. If I understand the models it looks like we will have a colder and snowier winter than last year.

    Thank you for the information above.

    Paul

  32. You are retarded. This whole map looks exactly the same as last years. Of course you were wrong back then. HAHAHA LAHUUUUUZERRRRRR!!!!! Someone’s paying way too much money for you to sit at your desk and do nothing all day!!!!

  33. @U R We Todd Did- NO it is not sir, please take a look at the prior forecast and then come back to me. Here in this outlook we point to the fact that certain aspects of the weather pattern are similar to last year, But please also take note that we have an updated winter outlook for this upcoming winter. This is preliminary and you will notice some differences. Thank you and have a wonderful day.

  34. People are so rude everybody makes mistakes im sure guys have made them before I don’t understand why people are making a big deal about things being spelt incorrectly. I’m probably younger than all of you and your acting like kids have some respect seriously and these are predictions doesn’t mean they will come true I remember when our weather man said we were only supposed to get two inches of snow and we woke up to two feet the snow plows couldn’t even keep up but everyone needs to grow up and respect people… People wonder why bad things are happening its because nobody has any respect for people who are trying to be helpful and informative….but anyways I have lived in central NY for two years now and both winters have been ‘disappointing’ I heard that we normally get alot of snow because of lake affect snow and when they would say we were supposed to get a foot of snow I’d get excited but it ended up being like 3-6 inches then it would melt before the next snow fall like the year before…does this have to do with the 2 hurricanes that came through the last two years? And do you expect more snow then the last two years?

  35. I live in west Georgia about 30 mins. Outside of Atlanta. It rained soooo much here this summer that some driveways, roads, and houses were damaged. I don’t think we saw more than 10 days without rain for over three months, and I’m not exaggerating. Please, please tell me that we will have very little rainfall this winter. Honestly, I don’t think I can take much more wet, gray weather that breaks all kinds of records. Oh yes, by the way, Ll the wet weather produced tons of Mosquitos, other types of bugs, and tons of snakes and frogs. Tell me this winter will be cold enough, finally, to kill off some of these critters.

  36. You (as well as others) always ignore the west coast and report heavily on the east coast. Personally, I could care less what happens in DC.

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