We have dropped hints the last couple of weeks of what this upcoming winter of 2017-2018 will bring. Last year we dropped the ball on this aspect of the weather. But we will strive to provide weekly posts on this matter.
Nonetheless here are some of the facotrs that we are and will consider as we head into the preliminary winter outlook:
Anylog of 2013 Season and 2008 Season
State of the ENSO and Our Projection
Factors we are still waiting on is the effect that this is going to have on the effect the impending ENSO will have on the MJO.
State of the ENSO:
Currently as you have seen in our post a week or so ago, currently the ENSO is in a neutral phase and looks to remain that way for the forseeable future. Our current projection is that during a neutral phase of the ENSO is that we will see colder than average conditions over the northern half of the united states. While drier and warmer than average conditions will persist over areas of the south and far west. This follows the average condtions of a neutral ENSO.
Anylog years for most recent Neutral ESNO: 2008-2009 & 2013-2014
What we can tell from this is that usually the brunt of the cold stays in the midwest and great lakes regions, however a general rule of thumb has been that its really there and the eastern half of the nation that is either average or bellow average temperature wise. While the west with the exception of the pacific northwest has been slightlyh warmer than average. Its really a coinflip on precipitation but when you consider the pattern that we have been in it leads me to belive that the precipitation on average will be like it typically is during a neutral year in the mid atlantic and southeast.
NAO , AO , PNA
While it is really hard to predict the NAO, AO and PNA what we can attempt to do is compare this time in the two prior neautral ENSO and see if they are similar than what they were then.
So after all of this. What are we forecastting for winter of 2017-2018? Well the state of the ESNO is critical. Seeing that the computer models or rather the CFS V2 is starting to agree with our projection that we made a little over a couple of months ago of there being a neutral ESNO that would be present for winter of 2017-2018 and looking closely at the anylogs of 2008 and 2013 so far so we can see if there are any similarities in the years. Without further or do here is the outlook.
This winter looks to be colder than average in the mid-atlantic, northeast and midwest while warmer particularly in the southeast. There likely will be more storm systems but likely they will be too fast moving along the east coast to bring any historic snow. However we belive that the weather pattern will follow the usual for a neutral year. We will also have visits from the polar vertex with how the jet stream will set up. The bulk of the cold air will be located in the midwest and great lakes region. You will likely have a lot of clipper systems that will put down some high ratio snowfall. The tropical jetstream should be pretty active with the typical pattern of a neautral esno. Any comments or questions feel free to post them bellow.
Ice storms may be a problem this year in North Carolina and Tenessee as you will be really close to where I belive the warm and cold air will colide on average. This follows right in line with average conditions that persist in neatral years.
Warmer than average conditions in the pacific southwest and northwest will likely prevail. If you are a snow lover the positive news is that you will not go through the winter and wonder will it ever show up. This year due to the state of the ESNO we also will likely have the polar vortex kicked into higher gear due to the average position of the artic branch of the Jet stream.