Sorry for being late with the winter outlook folks, there have been family issues during the latter half of June that I had to attend to. Which took my attention away. But here is your winter outlook (preliminary) for this upcoming winter season.
First off we will start off with the state of the ENSO. Currently the Pacific is warmer than average and signs early in the year pointed to a possible el-nino developing. Well as you can see bellow that is what is currently occurring. It really started developing in late may and continued into the month of June. Currently you can probably put the current state we are in as a weak el-nino, however models do predict this el nino to rival the el-nino of 2002-2003 and 2006-2007. Both of which were considered moderate el nino’s.
Considering all of this data, And also considering current conditions I am going to put my predictions of the upcoming winters ESNO as follows:
- Weak La Nina- 10%
- Moderate La Nina-5%
- Strong La Nina-0%
- Neutral Conditions-15%
- Weak El Nino-20%
- Moderate El Nino-40%
- Strong El Nino-10%
So with that in mind lets move over to the precipitation and temperature predictions. Now I will mention that in most cases as what happened in 2006-2007 winter and the 2004-2005 it can average warmer than average throughout the winter. However it does usually lead to wetter conditions in the southeast and northeast and eastern coast as you get the southern Jet stream more involved. This often spells more snow in the Eastern Half of the U.S.A in the winter, but those increased amounts of storms sometimes are too warm for the big cities. 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were the anomalies not the normal. The amount of snowfall is dependent usually on how strong the El nino is. If it is a strong el-nino then expect a “Indian Summer” type of winter, but if it is moderate as the models are indicating it will be it can lead to a snowier than average winter.
Temperature Outlook and Precip outlook:
For right now i am going conservative on my outlook. The Mid-Atlantic Big cities are the “wildcard” as what form the precip. comes in will be the big question mark. The Mid-West will likely not be as cold as it was last year but cool shots are not out of the question. It should be wetter than average in the south and southeast. I will have another update in early August. Then i will be adding in a few more pieces into the outlook. Any questions you have please place them bellow. I will try to get to them as soon as possible.