Preliminary Winter of 2014-2015 Forecast

Sorry for being late with the winter outlook folks, there have been family issues during the latter half of June that I had to attend to. Which took my attention away. But here is your winter outlook (preliminary) for this upcoming winter season.

First off we will start off with the state of the ENSO. Currently the Pacific is warmer than average and signs early in the year pointed to a possible el-nino developing. Well as you can see bellow that is what is currently occurring. It really started developing in late may and continued into the month of June. Currently you can probably put the current state we are in as a weak el-nino, however models do predict this el nino to rival the el-nino of 2002-2003 and 2006-2007. Both of which were considered moderate el nino’s.

el nino of last decade

irc

Models Predict el-nino is to strengthen over the next several months. Peaking around December, January, February.

Considering all of this data, And also considering current conditions I am going to put my predictions of the upcoming winters ESNO as follows:

  • Weak La Nina- 10%
  • Moderate La Nina-5%
  • Strong La Nina-0%
  • Neutral Conditions-15%
  • Weak El Nino-20%
  • Moderate El Nino-40%
  • Strong El Nino-10%
source accuweather

source accuweather

So with that in mind lets move over to the precipitation and temperature predictions. Now I will mention that in most cases as what happened in 2006-2007 winter and the 2004-2005 it can average warmer than average throughout the winter. However it does usually lead to wetter conditions in the southeast and northeast and eastern coast as you get the southern Jet stream more involved. This often spells more snow in the Eastern Half of the U.S.A in the winter, but those increased amounts of storms sometimes are too warm for the big cities. 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were the anomalies not the normal. The amount of snowfall is dependent usually on how strong the El nino is. If it is a strong el-nino then expect a “Indian Summer” type of winter, but if it is moderate as the models are indicating it will be it can lead to a snowier than average winter.

Temperature Outlook and Precip outlook:

For right now i am going conservative on my outlook. The Mid-Atlantic Big cities are the “wildcard” as what form the precip. comes in will be the big question mark. The Mid-West will likely not be as cold as it was last year but cool shots are not out of the question. It should be wetter than average in the south and southeast. I will have another update in early August. Then i will be adding in a few more pieces into the outlook. Any questions you have please place them bellow. I will try to get to them as soon as possible.

winter 14-15

38 comments on “Preliminary Winter of 2014-2015 Forecast

  1. Pingback: Preliminary Winter of 2014-2015 Outlook Released | Weather Advance Storm Center

  2. I would like to know if The State of Texas. Will have cold fronts? And, would we see snow this year ? ( praying)

  3. I wanted to know if you new if palmdale ca would have a cold winter in 2014-2015 and eill it snow out here. thank you.

  4. @johannabrown right now my thinking is that southern California will be wet but warmer than average and the northern half of California will be warmer and drier than average, I do not think the western half of the united states will be as cold as it is on the eastern half of the united states this year.

  5. Hello there! We seem to be on a division line, for your South Dakota. We are in Hutchinson county, on the border of south central and southeast. More snow than last year? Still afraid of that overdue winter! Thanks!

  6. Just wanted to know your thoughts for Oxford Michigan this winter, last winter was brutal people that lived here 25 years had not seen a winter like what we had.just wondering if we are gonna get hit again.thank you.

  7. Question? How do the norhtern parts of Indiana/so. Michigan look for this winter?? I may need to head south to Texas if it looks anything like last year.

  8. I just moved to Northern Idaho and am really wondering what the wether might be like this winter with particular regards to snow.

  9. @Nadia Fellah, as of this moment with what we are thinking, it could be bitterly cold and watch out for big time snows in January.

  10. Wondering how northwest Tennessee will fare this winter. I absolutely ❤ snow & wintertime! Call me crazy-But I want lots and lots of snow. What are the chances that I will get it?

  11. We are in central Nebraska and are wondering what were looking at as far as snowfall and frigid temperatures and the severity of any possible snow storms. We are hearing below forties for some parts of ne but that is hear say and are Waite for a bad blizzard as we haven’t had one in a few yearsthank you

  12. Thank you for your service. How does snowfall and temps look for Chatham, Ma
    (The elbow of Cape Cod)? Regards, Rick

  13. Kansas City area, being the heart of America, seems to get overlooked for weather predictions. What do you see for the upcoming winter?

  14. Just moved to the Atlanta region. Just wondering if there will be a repeat of snow traffic jams that occurred earlier this year:)? I do enjoy the snow but would prefer to play in it at home, not on the interstates:)

  15. I was wondering if Oak Island, NC will see any snow this 2014-2015 winter season? We barely get snow in this city of NC. I am praying there will be some higher chances of cold temperatures and Snow.

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