Tag Archives: Forecasting

Be Careful Not to Model Hug Folks

The Current state of the ENSO has stalled, long range models indicate that this will change, but ive seen this before, so until i see the models actually verify, i don’t see much reason why a repeat of last winters Neutral to weak ENSO is still possible.

2013-08-05_1915

 

National weather Service over the winter sees it more likely of a LA Nina-Neutral Conditions than an El Nino- Next Winter it is more likely to see the development of an el nino. But overall a small pool of cooler waters will persist in the eastern pacific, no real el-nino develops. Most likely scenario as I have said before in my thinking is a Very Weak La Nina Neutral Conditions, i just don’t see el nino at this time. That may change over the next few months. A Lot of time folks.

2013-08-05_1918