Hello all, And thank you for stopping by to see Weather Advance’s official 2010-2011 winter outlook. This is the Final update.
Now on to winter. As we all know that winter was at its worst in the Mid-Atlantic last year. However I do not expect them to be the ones to be the big winners snowfall wise. There have been a lot of hints and signs of a la nina developing. Which usually means it gets bitter cold in the east however it warms back up before any storm systems come there way. Right now however despite that I do believe it will be colder than average for the majority of the north side of the us and around average in the south US. So here is my current outlook for the U.S. and unlike last year I will not be releasing at all any snowfall prediction maps. I will however release a map showing how much more or less snow I believe the areas will receive than average. So without further or do, here is my outlook for this winter.
Winter 2010-2011 Outlook Video Part 1:
Winter 2010-2011 Outlook Video Part 2:
When it comes down to it on a national scale it looks as if this winter will be almost a repeat of last winter. HOWEVER, there will be more cold spread out and the snow will be more spread out. Right now my thinking is that the areas that saw 50″+ of snow in the mid atlantic, may not see that again this year but be careful it will still be very wintry. One thing to think about is that the AO and NAO have been negative and are projected to be negative over the winter. Typically when both the NAO and AO are negative it spells colder than average temperatures in the East and Warmer than average temperatures in the west. Also it allows storms to come up along the coast as a coastal low.
Another thing that you have to watch for are the patterns that you see setting up. Usually the ones that set up just before the Fall starts and during fall are the ones that persist through the winter. The same holds true for the summer. The pattern sets in place in early spring. the pattern persisted through the summer. Now another aspect to note is the National Weather Service Prediction when it comes to the Temperatures and Precipitation chances from November-February it showed the chances of it being warmer than average in the Western portion of the united states being between 30%-60%. Yes this us very far out but still it is something worth mentioning. Also look at the pattern in play now and it seems to be repeating, from last year.
As of now I am thinking the pacific Northwest will be dealing with Mild but snowy conditions, but it will be more snow than last year. BUT, there will be quick warm up’s after the snow falls. As a result it will melt quite rapidly. In the Midwest I think it will be Cold & Snowy, and it will be more snow than last year. This will mainly be the product of Clipper systems and also weak pacific systems that will be in a more of a zonal flow. Meaning they will travel more from straight west to east. These storm systems are the ones I believe will be the ones that will cause the Mid-Atlantic and the areas in the “Hot Pink” Shaded area to be colder than average but also snowier than average, but at the same time in some areas more Ice than snow. This will be during those zonal phase’s, where a whole lot of cold air will not be available.
For the interior areas of the northeast I think the storm track will favor you guys a little bit more than last year.
- Colder Than Average Temperatures And It Looks To Be Snowier Than Average as you head through the northeast.
- Most of the snow will be west of the I-95 Corridor.
- There Will be more Ice storms along the I-95 corridor city’ s such as New York & Boston
- A couple big snowstorms are possible but no Snowmagadon.
- Majority of northeast I think will get 5-15” more snow than average. So for example New York City Receives An average of 28.4” of snow so add 5-15” and you have a chance of seeing 33-43.4” of snow.
- Pretty Much Colder Than Average Over The Mid-Atlantic.
- Most of the snow will be North & west of the I-95 Corridor, But The I-95 Corridor cities will still get more snow than average.
- There Will be more Ice storms along the I-95 corridor city’s such as Philadelphia & Washington D.C
- One 12”+ Storm Possible but no Snowmagadon.
- Majority of Mid-Atlantic I think will get 5-15” more snow than average. So for example Washington D.C. Receives An average of 16.6” of snow so add 5-15” and you have a chance of seeing 21-32.6” of snow.
- It looks To be A More Ice than snow type of winter in the Mid-Atlantic From Elkins, WV to Richmond, VA to Washington D.C And Pittsburgh, PA.
- Just South Of Richmond It Will be Slightly Colder Than Average but less snow than last year.
- Pittsburgh PA, area will be colder & snowier than last winter.
- Main storm track will be farther to the west than it was last year.
- Snow all The Way to coastal regions not as likely as last year.
- Pretty Much Colder Than Average Over The Southeast.
- Despite It being slightly colder than average it will be less snow than last year.
- Long Dry period and several short lapses of milder than average temperatures. (1 or 2 days every couple of weeks.)
- Majority of southeast will receive 1-7 inches of snow less than average (around the 7” range is for less than last year).
- Areas like Little Rock and Nashville will be around average in terms o f snowfall.