Hello Everyone. After last winter for the Northern Mid-Atlantic and the northeast many want to see less snow this upcoming winter. Now will that happen? Well that is what I am going to discuss within this outlook. Now this is my early and first outlook. I have 3 more that will come out over the period between today and going on through Mid-Fall. So without further or do, lets get started.
Looking At The Factors: El Nino Or La Nina
Winter of 2009-2010- Moderate El Nino
Winter of 2010-2011-Strong La Nina
Winter of 2011-2012- ? (Right now I am thinking either a weak el nino and weak la nina)
Why the wide range. Well for one because It looks as if the conditions are heading to a neutral position in the Pacific. Which means that there is no La Nina and that There is No El Nino. Two that it is so far out that it is not easy to put your finger on it. Right Now I am leaning more towards a Neutral position.
NAO, AO, PNA. How Will They Act?
Well it is very hard to tell in the long term whether or not what these will do, but what I have always focused on is the Pattern. What does it show over a period of time? Well taking a look bellow, at the NAO Index you will notice that the majority of the time the NAO was Either Neutral or Positive. Seldom it dipped, as it is expected to do again according to the NAO Index forecast for May 1st through May 15th. And usually when it goes negative that means that there is a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. Also it is usually cool and unsettled. As it is expected to be during the weeks between May 1st- May 15th. So when you look at the pattern, I see, that we may have seen the end of the Negative NAO that we saw during the winter of 2009-2010 and that persisted through most of the summer and the Late parts of 2010, that stayed negative for several months at a time and occasionally bumped positive. We are now seeing more of a occasional bump negative and a more extended period positive.
What Is the NAO, AO, & PNA?
The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity.
The Arctic oscillation (AO) is an index (which varies over time with no particular periodicity) of the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level pressure variations north of 20N latitude,
The Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern is a climatological term for a large-scale weather pattern with two modes, denoted positive and negative, and which relates the atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific Ocean with the one over the North American continent.
Definitions from wikipedia.org
So at this point when you look at these factors, this is what I see happening in the Winter of 2011-2012.
Right now It looks as if, all of this stayed the same and the pattern remained the same and the current la nina turned into a neutral position as most model are predicting at this point and, the sea surface conditions are also pointing to as well here is what I think will happen Region by Region.
Right now, it is really divided when it comes to where you live, when it comes to what I expect for this upcoming winter. Right now, I believe that the pattern of constant storms coming up the coast will continue, but with less frequency, and it will be more of a traditional winter along the Major Cities along I-95. Which means that the snowmageddon that Washington D.C, Baltimore, & Philadelphia have seen the past couple of winters, most likely will not be this winter. I expect more modest and typical snow events along the major I-95 cities in the range of 1-3″, 3-6″ or even in February a 4-8″ storm. If you head further inland though, I believe this is where the storm track will be favorable to produce large snowstorms. The past couple of winters you all have been robbed of snow and have claimed to be in a “Snow Hole” or “Snow Dome” because snow either went to your north, south, east or west. I do not believe that this will be the case for you this year. A positive NAO would mean a more inland track. As a result I believe that central Pennsylvania will fare pretty well, when it comes to snowfall. I believe it will be cold and snowy in that area.
In the southeast as of right now it is really a one act show. Right now as it goes I believe that most of the southeast will be around average. Northern Virgina, I believe will also have an average winter, unlike the past two years, where you saw above average snowfall. The only areas that I have an exception for are areas of Texas and Oklahoma, where I believe it will be warmer and drier than average. So Atlanta, looks as if it was a one year wonder when you received about a foot of snow. Expect more of an average winter this year.
The Great lakes appears to be where they should be, and pretty much are every year. Cold and snowy. Not much of a story here. But I expect areas like Chicago and Indianapolis to receive more snow this year than a couple of years ago. You should have average to above average snowfall. Maybe a couple of icy incidents in Indianapolis.
The Northeast in General looks poised to repeat last year. With the exception of the Major cities, such as New York City and Boston. I expect them to have a more average season. Boston is still up in the air with me, as I still think they could be included in the cold and snowy range this year. Areas like Buffalo and Albany New York, should have a cold an snowy winter. Even Maine should get in on some of this action.
The Mid-West this year I believe will be colder and snowier than last year. I know a lot of you in the mid-west had the same blizzard that, showed how animate Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel can be. I belive that you all will recive a more snow, and more blizzards than last winter. This is where I belive the heart of winter will be. Mininapolis, get ready because I think that you all will have a snowy winter.
Seattle, Washington. A place where the weather during the winter is typically cool and wet, with temps in the 40′s & 50′s. This winter, I believe it will be much of the same. I still expect average snow and I am leaning towards slightly above average snowfall in the pacific northwest. But I am sticking with Cool and Wet for right now.
As for right now I am thinking that you guys in the west will receive an average winter. I do not expect snow in southern California like some of you received last year. So other than that, there is not much to say about the winter in the west. Average will be the theme for that winter.
This is my first Editon My second update will come on July 15th 2011, The 3rd Edition will be released on September 15th and the Final Edition will be Released October 25th. Remeber these are initial thoughts and may change on the next update. Stay tuned!