Winter 2014-2015 Outlook (Second Edition)

This upcoming winter is now under 6 months away which means that now is the time for our second winter outlook update of the season. In this update we will include…

  • A look at the NAO, AO andPNA
  • A look at the state of the ESNO
  • Snowfall Prediction Maps
  • General Overview
  • Winter Outlook Video

First off what I like to look at is the pattern that the NO, AO and PNA show as sometimes the pattern for the upcoming year will tip its hand. So lets take a look shall we.

 

 

nao ao pna

NAO/AO: In General The NAO has hovered around Neutral to slightly Negative over the past several months. If it hung around that range as we head into the winter it would be good for snow. If the NAO is too Negative that means the blocking will be too strong and storms will go out to sea more so than up the coast. So at the level its hovering around now is pretty acceptable. The AO since may has been similar.

PNA: Usually this is an indication that there is a ridge in the West. Over the past several months I would say it has been Generally positive.

State Of The ESNO -El Nino or La Nina?

Right now we are already in a state of El Nino a weak one at that.But what is likely more significant is the fact that it will be an East based El Nino. In the El Ninos in 2006-2007 it was noticeably warmer than average but it was a west based el nino.But the winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 had similar el-ninos but where very cold and snowy. (2009-2010 winter broke snowfall records in the mid-atlantic) These were east based el ninos. It appears that not only will we be headed towards an east based el nino but one of similar  strength as well. The CSv2 Model continues to Say that we will head into an el nino and it would be east based. I am going to go along with that outlook as other models as mentioned in our prior winter outlook proposed the same idea.

2

Snowfall Prediction Map

For those In the Slightly above average section right now i am thinking that you will be 1-5″ above average snowfall wise this winter. For areas in the above average section I am thinking 5-10″ above average snowfall. Much above average area I am thinking will see 10″+ above there average snowfall. Could these go up? Certainly, but this is our first snowfall prediction map, we will have further updates later.

snowfall forecast

General Winter Outlook For The Winter :

When you look at the united states as a whole bellow is what I am thinking this winter will be like. Warm and Dry in the Northwest and Wet and warmer than average in the Southwest portions of the Nation. In line with a usual East Based Moderate El Nino. Winter Battle zone where you will see snow but also swings in precip. will be in areas of northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri. When you look at the Southeast in general I think it will be more along the line of the winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 winters where it was Cold and wetter than average in general. Overall Snowfall may be above average as well. I really think the worst of winter will follow the course of the General El Nino’s that are moderate and west based of the last decade. That it will be cold and snowy in and along I-95 somewhere, it could set up to the west of I-95 or Farther North. It also will be telling how close these systems will hug the coast. If too much it could be more rain than snow if they are in the right spot it could be a snowy and cold winter for the Mid-Atlantic. That’s part of why it is the wild card. Its so much uncertainty. We will have a better Idea of the pattern that winter is going to follow as we head into the month of October and November, as right then is when i really start focusing on how the weather pattern is setting up for the winter. There are a few signs now but I will issue those in our 3rd update.

PLEASE NOTE: IT MAY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT I DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE THE BENEFICIARY SNOWFALL WISE. FLORIDA WILL JUST BE WET AND COOL I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER DUE TO STORMS CRANKING UP AND COMING UP THE COAST.

winter outlook 2

39 thoughts on “Winter 2014-2015 Outlook (Second Edition)

  • August 3, 2014 at 9:12 am
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    Hello I have a question regarding the maryland DC area. Do you think this winter will be snowny like the winter of 2009-2010? Thanks

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 4, 2014 at 5:52 pm
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    @kc i am not going to predict a historic winter like that one was. Conditions are similar, but its too early to call on that one. You might have a nice blend of the 2002-2003 winter (40.4″ of snow) and then 2013-2014 winter (about 25″+). That would seem to be a safe bet right now but a lot can change. I am currently thinking that there will be above average snowfall though this winter for the upcoming winter season. Thanks for the question

  • August 5, 2014 at 9:01 am
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    what is your prediction for Northeast Pa?

  • August 5, 2014 at 4:19 pm
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    How do you think this winter will be like in shippensburg,pa as of right now?

  • August 5, 2014 at 4:23 pm
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    And how much snow is it looking to be as of now for shippensburg,pa this winter?

  • August 7, 2014 at 1:06 pm
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    I see that it says Cold and Average Snowfall for ohio, but I am thinking Columbus, Ohio will get slighty above average snowfall and slighty below average temps, thoughts?
    Thanks,
    John

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 7, 2014 at 5:57 pm
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    @John I think you are pretty on point there with that outlook, Im going conservative until all the factors show themselves. But I do believe that it will be colder than average in Columbus Ohio.

  • August 10, 2014 at 2:03 am
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    I live in western kentucky and wonder what the probability of another icestoorm like 2009 is?

  • August 11, 2014 at 1:00 pm
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    Thanks for your input, I’ll keep a lookout on your site for updated outlooks.

  • August 13, 2014 at 11:44 am
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    I was sitting on my front porch in New Milford, CT (Litchfield County, CT) and was watching leaves fall and hearing acorns drop as the squirrels have started harvesting already. Now reading this, I’m certainly laying in more wood and making sure I get a generator.

  • August 13, 2014 at 2:18 pm
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    What is the outlook for the minnesota winter? how much snow should we expect up here?

  • August 13, 2014 at 3:37 pm
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    Hope you are right. I am a northeaster skier and would love to have a good long skiing season. Would you please push a couple Nor’Easters farther north so the eastern Adirondacks get a good dump? Most seem to take a right turn south of Albany and hit New England.

  • August 14, 2014 at 7:37 am
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    I was wondering if you could pinpoint the Waynesboro PA/Hagerstown MD area. Is that in the dark or the lighter blues?

  • August 14, 2014 at 8:18 am
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    Do you think there will be another Polar Vortex for the Mid-Atlantic and Potomac Highlands areas?

  • August 14, 2014 at 11:25 pm
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    Hi, thank you for the forecast, i was hoping for a better “nicer” winter but i see we are in the are where it says “worst of winter”. We had a very very horrible winter on Long island,NY , do you think is going to be as frigid as it was last winter???

  • August 15, 2014 at 1:34 pm
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    Do you think that the Hampton roads in Virginia have a good chance of a snowy winter ??

  • August 17, 2014 at 9:42 pm
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    I always expect St. Paul, MN to be in the cold belt but there is a significant difference between -20 and – 50. Any thoughts on which end of the spectrum of cold?

  • August 18, 2014 at 10:07 am
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    Bellow? Hello?
    The comments are often hilarious. Could you tell me how much snow I’ll get this year? I live on 12th Street in Anytown, Anystate.

  • August 19, 2014 at 6:03 pm
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    This forecast is a JOKE. Its not based on ANY science…. and in the videos you can hear the gys Mommy talking in the background. The fact is that web sites like this actually end up doing FAR MORE HARM to idea of seasonal weather forecasting than good.

    The very nature of weather is a chaotic in nature .. There is simply nothing in the atmosphere during the month of July or August which could possibly represent or indicate what the winter’s going to be like.
    This guy is selling you BULL and snake oil. And the best case for that is the fact that this idiot is posting the 2 and 3 weeks forecast models for the NAO the AO and PNA… which only take this into the first or second week of August. (that is assuming of course that the forecast models for the AO PNA PNA are actually going to be accurate!!)

    These NAO AO and PNA tell us nothing at all with regard to what these features are going to be doing this coming winter . Over the last 120 years there have been at least 60 instances where the summer weather patterns of been totally different from the winter weather patterns.

    Even more surprising is the fact that this weenie’s forecast for the “worst of the winter” happens to be over the entire I 95 northeast corridor…. which is going to attract more followers and weenies.

    It should be noted that every single winter forecast for the past four years from this particular website has located the most cold of the most snow over either the Great Lakes and Northeast ..or just the Northeast. In the super warm snowless winter of 11-12 this “forecast” buried the midwest and Northeast in huge amounts of snow and much below Normal temps.

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 21, 2014 at 9:05 pm
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    @DT-Wxrisk thank you for your honest opinion. We here have our own style of forecasting the winter. We have given a detailed explanation of what we factor in. These are based on preliminary predictions. Last year for our winter forecast we based it off of this model and it was fairly correct. There have been times when our forecast has busted but it is not all the time. In fact in our last years third edition of our outlook included a warmer than average prediction. As mentioned this is not a final outlook, we just base our forecast off of what we think will happen right now and we only give it a 30-40% of shaking out this way. We are a modest company that forecasts the weather, we are not meteorologist, but have a pretty good record when it comes to winter forecasting. The worst of winter as mentioned i in the forecast I am not too sure about yet as the state of the ENSO is not settled yet and the weather pattern has not been identified its the wildcard of the forecast as for right now since we are not close enough to our last outlook (November 5th) to narrow it down yet. We narrow down our forecast then, and also it will be adjusted in our final outlook. Please also consider our Website policy when it comes to comments as curseing is not allowed in our fourms, thank you for your comment. http://weatheradvance.com/2013/02/02/weather-advance-zero-tolerance-policy/e

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 21, 2014 at 9:08 pm
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    @Liz I expect Minneapolis to be cold. Just how much cold right now is the question, right now the state of the El nino is up in the air. That will be very telling as to what your temperatures will be like and whether or not it is east or west based.

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 21, 2014 at 10:05 pm
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    @wendy, it may be a little early for that. Hold the phone on that one. A lot can change between now and December

  • Dante' Brown-Royal
    August 21, 2014 at 10:07 pm
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    @Scott, its very hard to predict where the worst of winter will be this early or if there will be one. This is based on preliminary conditions and a second look at things. We will have a better idea of things in Late September and through Octber.

  • August 22, 2014 at 8:15 am
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  • August 31, 2014 at 7:52 am
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    do you have prédiction for Québec Canada? tank you.

  • September 1, 2014 at 2:54 am
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    Hi, how bout Horry area of SC Aynor/Myrtle/Conway? Any thoughts bout the snow here? Thx

  • September 12, 2014 at 5:24 pm
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    I am a senior on a budget. Washington Gas will give me a budget payment of $60/mo for 12 months now, with the possibility of a balloon payment at the end of the year if gas costs are more than expected. My actual gas supplier, Washington Gas Energy Services (Wash.Gas is only the pipeline system) is proposing $70/mo with no possibility of a balloon payment. Even allowing for variability of what will actually happen, and given the uncertainty of outcome for the Washington D.C. area, would you give a guess at what you would gamble with – the higher or the lower payment?

  • September 12, 2014 at 6:45 pm
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    What do you think Alabama will be like In The Winter Similar To Last Winter

  • September 14, 2014 at 7:42 pm
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    I was wondering if you could do a storm track forecast. And do you know what winter will be like for Nashville Tennessee

  • September 15, 2014 at 9:25 am
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    Will winter 2015 be cold in Florida

  • September 15, 2014 at 7:16 pm
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    Winter i feel is kinda hard to predict this far ahead but i check online every year at this time to see who what when where why and whoever or whatever or wherever is predicting winter weather wise for ohio and the midwest, who really knows till winter really starts and who really knows this far in advance we still need indian summer, then we in ohio can start looking towards colder winter type stuff, but again i say who really knows the farmers almanac or the true blue weatherman or the national weather association winter 2014 to 2015 will come and go and who will have the closest prediction to brag about next year at this time the best prediction is one winter day at a time and watch your local weatherman tv station every day and get up early every morning to check the roads or shovel your driveway.

  • September 18, 2014 at 10:24 am
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    What will winter be like for Orangeburg,SC?

  • September 25, 2014 at 9:59 am
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    wondering what’s winter has in store for TX as in Houston area?

  • October 2, 2014 at 12:21 am
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    Hey there, I live in the Durham, North Carolina Area…Do you know what our Winter will Possibly be like in Central North Carolina?

  • October 3, 2014 at 1:49 am
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    I’m from Prince George,VA I was wondering about will it be a bad storm like ice storm in the are a this year or will it be like last year because last year was not that bad it was actually much warmer then average… I’m hoping that our area get a decent snowfall because everytime it snowed it seem like every storm either stayed south or went out to sea… I’m hoping for at least a good amount of snowfall in our area…

  • October 3, 2014 at 3:07 am
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    @Kendall Brooks, I do think that your area will have a much better shot at snow this winter, and there may be some threats of ice in your area, but that’s typical for the Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

  • October 15, 2014 at 3:12 pm
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    Hmmm…I checked the winter predictions for the Southeast @Farmer’s Almanac early on this year and they predicted a mild winter. NOW, it’s notsomuch…things changed. Hmm….I tend to rely on my grandma’s method: if the squirrels are building nests close to the ground, buckle up for a cold one. IF the nests are higher and less protected, relax…it’s going to be mild. She’s usually right because the squirrels are usually right 🙂

  • October 15, 2014 at 11:49 pm
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    @bARBARA Yeah a lot of people were thinking that it was going to be a little mild earlier this year, including myself BUT that was really way too early to try to predict the winter. I do think it will be another cold and snowy winter. By the way how far up or how far down is the squirrel nests in your area. They are fairly low in my area here in Charlotte,NC.

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