4/5/18 Daily Model Rundown – Glorified Frontal Passage
Funny thing that I mentioned yesterday was how this time of year snow like the computer models had indicated for a few days seemed unlikely, buy still possible. What I did mention was to me that this seemed like nothing more than an overglorified frontal passage and the models seem to be lineing up for that at this point. Here is what todays 12Z GFS, Canadian and Euro had to say about the potential weekend snow.
12Z GFS model 4-5-18
The 12Z GFS which seemed to be leading the snow train charge for the mid-atlantic and the northeast pulled back some (a lot) from what it had been saying. Which was a decent snowstorm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic. Now it appears as if the storm gets shoved to the south and not only that but the system really does not develop in enough time to give anyone anything other than some rain showers on Friday Night. It would change over to a brief period of some wet snow but that seems highly unlikely. That rarely verifies on the day its supposed to happen in the Mid-Atlantic.
12 CANADIAN MODEL 4/5/18
The Canadian has been the most consistant model with this storm by far so far this week. It had a little hickup last night. But it really emphasizes the cold front coming through with a slight chance of some light flurries on the back end. For those who had been waiting on spring this is the model you should hug as temeratures really go up during next week to more springlike temperatures.
12Z Euro
The 12Z Euro is almost a carbon copy of the Canadian except for the fact that it delivers no snow in this senario. Just an overglorifed cold front that will briefly knock temperatures down before they really go up as we get into the following week, The Euro and Canadian however both show a coastal low with a snow to rain senario in the Mid-Atlantic. This bears watching but things are not really set up for this to be anything but a heavy rainstorm mid-week prior to a nice warmup. Images will be posted later.
So overall this weekend storm looks like just a chance of some rain & Snow showers through the mid-atlantic and the northeast. There is a chance of a wintery mix as we hit Tuesday next week turning into a heavy rain. But the highlight of all of this is that temperatures will really warm up as we get into later portions of next week to more seasonable or rather warmer weather
-Winter Weather expert
Dante Avery Brown-Royal