All of you are very familiar with our past two preliminary winter outlooks for this upcoming winter. Right now im here to tell you that not much has changed regarding my thoughts going into this upcoming winter. Lets consider some of the factors involved.
ESNO- It is currently in a weak el nino phase and this is where i really expect it to stay over this upcoming winter. Here is the pattern that usually sets up in this type of scenario… (See Image to the Left)
Point: West based el ninos are usually colder and snowier in the east. This looks to be a west based weak el nino that is setting up shape right now.
One thing that has me concerned is the overall weather pattern that is setting up over the east coast. IF you like snow this pattern is not one of the greatest signs. If you like cold the same statement stands true. What we have noticed over the month of October and even whats coming in November 6-8th is a pattern where the storms move up the Appalachian mountains or become what is known as “lake cutters”. They would transfer there energy off to a coastal low or a nor-easter. But therein lies the problem, if it transfers too late you can end up with a slop storm (snow to ice then rain). (See image bellow)
However we have also seen the pattern of coastal lows, coming up the coast and producing some decent precip. That also effects what our winter outlooks will be like.
Another pattern is that is setting up that is noteworthy is the state of the NAO, AO and PNA that is setting up for us. Looking at the pattern between all three it looks as if the NAO and AO are consistently around neutral to negative over the past few months. The PNA has been for the most part positive over the past few months. When you consider that a negative NAO and AO and positive PNA usually mean that there is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east.
So without further or do here is my 2014-2015 winter outlook. Drastic changes were made considering what my second outlook showed. This is in part to the belief that we will max out at a weak el nino and that the current pattern seems to be setting up this way.
The Northeast in general what type of winter precipitation that you get will highly depend on where you are.The closer that you live to the coast the more I believe that you will be dealing with slop storms. You will receive your fair share of snow as well. However most of or the brunt of winter with pure snow will be in the interior sections of the northeast including cities such as Albany, and Montpelier. Along I-95 you will see your fair share of snow as well. But due to storm tracks #2 and #3 in the diagram above you will also see you fair share of snow to ice then rain type of storms. Overall the northeast should be cold and snowier than average over the course of the winter.
I believe it will be colder and snowier than average for the most part in the mid-atlantic. But here is where the fun will be.The dreaded slop storm along I-95 and surrounding areas. Where you will have some wintery mix precipitation. With storms taking tracks #2 and #3 occasionally you will have to worry about cold air damming along and in the big city’s. My thinking is that it will be more slop storms in December and early January than in Mid January through March. This may at times be more about where you are elevation wise than it was last year when everyone got snow.Expect some occasional temperature swings.
The Southeast will be dealing with Colder than average temperatures and the opportunities for snow. It will not be too much snowier than average but it will be wetter than average overall. Several areas are in the winter battle zone as you also due to storm tracks that are predicted will see more slop storms. Right now i would lean to the lower end of the scale of about 1-5 inches above average for most of the southeast.
COLD,COLD, COLD, COLD! That will be the general theme of the mid-west.Most of the major storm tracts should stay down to your south.As a result i think that you all will be cold but be around average to slightly bellow average snowfall wise. The majority of the snow will be down towards Southern Iowa into Michigan,Indiana and Ohio.